Factors determining oil prices in international markets
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37883/GID.11.2.2026.02Keywords:
oil prices, geoeconomics, supply and demand, international markets, oil market shocks, geogoliticalAbstract
This study aims to identify the main factors that determine the formation of international oil prices. Using a qualitative, descriptive-analytical documentary approach, the research included a systematic review of specialized literature and the analysis of historical price series for benchmark crude oils (Brent, WTI, and the OPEC Basket) covering the period from 1990 to 2024. Kilian’s (2009) analytical framework of oil market shocks was applied to examine the dynamics affecting price formation. The findings reveal that the global oil market has undergone a structural transformation: OPEC’s influence has been weakened by the expansion of shale oil production; China has emerged as the primary driver of global demand; financial markets amplify volatility through futures speculation; and geopolitical factors affect prices through conflicts and economic sanctions. The determinants identified were categorized into three types of shocks: supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks, and precautionary demand shocks. The study concludes that oil price formation is a multifaceted phenomenon shaped by the complex interaction of economic, geopolitical, and technological factors, thereby requiring integrated analytical frameworks for its comprehensive understanding
Downloads
References
Bloomberg News. (2019, 16 de septiembre). Oil Prices Surge After Attack on Saudi Aramco Facilities. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-16/oil-prices-surge-after-attack-on-saudi-aramco-facilities
British Petroleum (BP). (2023). Revisión estadística de la energía mundial. Londres: British Petroleum.
Corden, W. M., & Neary, J. P. (1982). Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy. The Economic Journal, 92(368), 825–848. https://doi.org/10.2307/2232676
Datosmacro.com. (2025). Precio del petróleo tipo West Texas Intermediate (WTI). Expansión / Datosmacro. https://datosmacro.expansion.com/
Fattouh, B. (2007). The drivers of oil prices: the usefulness and limitations of non-structural model, the demand–supply framework and informal approaches. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
Fattouh, B., Poudineh, R., & Sen, A. (2020). La pandemia COVID-19 y el colapso del precio del petróleo: una revisión de los impactos económicos y las respuestas políticas. Instituto Oxford de Estudios Energéticos. Disponible en: https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/
Frankel, J. A. ( (2012). The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey of Diagnoses and Some Prescriptions. HKS Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP12-014, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.
Hamilton, J. D. (2013). Explosiones históricas del petróleo. En Manual de Routledge de los principales eventos en la historia económica.
Hamilton, J. (2003). What is an oil shock? Journal of Econometrics (113): 363-398.: https://muse.jhu.edu/article/316309
Hamilton, J. D. (2009). Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 40(1), 215-283. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304407602002075?via%3Dihub
International Energy Forum (IEF). (2023). Energy Market Impacts of Geopolitical Events. Riyadh: International Energy Forum.
International Energy Agency (IEA). (2021). World Energy Outlook 2021. Paris: IEA. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2021
International Energy Agency (IEA). (2022). World Energy Outlook 2022. Paris: IEA. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2022
International Energy Agency (IEA). (2023). World Energy Outlook 2023. Paris: IEA. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2023
Kilian, L. (2009). Not all oil price shocks are alike: disentangling demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market. American Economic Review 99(3): 1053-1069. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.99.3.1053
Kilian, L., & Murphy, D. P. (2014). The role of inventories and speculative trading in the global market for crude oil. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 29(3), 454–478.https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2376
Kilian, L., & Zhou, X. (2020). The impact of oil price shocks on the U.S. dollar exchange rate. Journal of International Money and Finance, 109, 102236. https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/journal-of-international-money-and-finance
Kuorikosk, J.& Marchionni, C. (05 Apr 2024): Economic modelsand their flexible interpretations: a philosophy of science perspective, Journal of Economic Methodology, DOI: 10.1080/1350178X.2024.2336048
Noreng, O. (2003). El Poder del Petróleo: La Política y el Mercado del Crudo. Buenos Aires: Editorial Ateneo.
Smith, J. L. (2021). La Revolución de los Esquistos y la nueva economía del petróleo. Oxford University Press.
Tang, K., y Xiong, W. (2012). Indización de la inversión y la financiarización de los productos básicos. Revista de Analistas Financieros.
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2024). Tight Oil Production Estimates by Play. Washington, D.C.: EIA. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/data.php
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2014). Cushing, OK: The Role of Storage and Transportation Infrastructure in Oil Price Differentials. Washington, D.C.: EIA. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=15531
Yergin, D. (2020). El nuevo mapa: Energía, clima y choque de naciones. Penguin Press.
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
Categories
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
